The exceptional security incident was seen by the observers as a preliminary "Iranian" message to several parties, through the implementing and loyal to it, as it is firstly a message to the Kurdistan region of Iraq, as well as to the international coalition to fight terrorism led by United StateAnd to some extent, the Iranian Kurdish parties opposed to the regime in Tehran.

But the incident also raised major questions about the political and security landscape in the region from which the missiles were launched, called the Nineveh Plain, as it is the subject of a historical political, demographic and military conflict between many political, national, religious and sectarian forces in the northwest region. Iraq.

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Area The Nineveh Plain Its area is estimated at about 5,000 square kilometers, and it extends in the form of a plain arc surrounding the city of Mosul, from the Hammam Al-Alil side in its far east, up towards the Kurdish-majority town of Barada Rush, then heading west towards the towns of Farah and reaching the Mosul Dam Lake.

This plain includes the towns of Bashiqa, Bahzani, Baadarah, Tal Asf and Tilkaif, and dozens of smaller towns, with an estimated population of about half a million people, the majority of whom were Assyrians, Chaldeans, and Syriac Christians before waves Displacement And the immigration that hit them due to the worrying security situation over the past years, and at the moment there is a mixture of Kurds and members of the "Shiite" Shabak nationalism, Yazidis and "Sunni" Arabs.

Since the overthrow of the former Iraqi regime in 2003, the region has become a subject of conflict between the central authority and a region Kurdstan IraqThe region was subject to Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, which considered it a subject of conflict between the two parties, provided that a referendum of its local population would take place in the future to determine its political and administrative affiliation to either party, the central government or the Kurdistan region.

During the years between 2003 and the terrorist organization "ISIS" occupation of that region in 2014, all the central Iraqi governments supported the "Shiite" Shabak people in this region, and helped them to expand geographically at the expense of Christians and Sunni Kurds and Arabs. Dozens of Shiite religious shrines and charitable institutions were built. And the network economy in the region, at a time when the local government in the province of Mosul was not implementing any development projects, which prompted tens of thousands of Kurdish and Christian families there to flee to the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which created a demographic imbalance in the Nineveh Plain to be almost devoid of Christians andThe Kurds.

The situation worsened after the "ISIS" occupation of that region between 2014 and 2017, so that it became of the same demographic color due to the waves of displacement.

And after overthrowingIsis"In the summer of 2017, there was an undeclared agreement between the governments of the Kurdistan region and the central government that control of the plain would be divided equally between the two parties.

Under the agreement, what was known as the northern Nineveh Plain was born, which includes the towns of Bashiqa, Bahzani, Qaraqosh and their geographical surroundings under the control of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, and with them the "third regiment" forces, which included about 2,500 Christian fighters trained by the international coalition forces to fight terrorism, and they were political Supported by the Chaldean Assyrian People's Council, an Iraqi Assyrian political party, close to the Iraqi Kurdistan region.

As for the south of the Sahel, which included the towns of Baghdeda, Telkef, Carmelis, and Bartella and their administrative areas, they were controlled by the Iraqi regular forces, along with factions of the Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces, with the presence and relative support of the so-called "Nineveh Plain Garrison Units", which included about 400 soldiers under the political auspices of the Democratic Movement. The Chaldean Assyrian Syriac "Zoa", and receives its resources from the Popular Mobilization Organizations.

After the referendum on the independence of the Kurdistan region of Iraq on September 25, 2017, the Iraqi army forces began on October 17 of the same year, with the support of the Popular Mobilization Forces and Iranian and Turkish regional support, an armed attack on the entire disputed areas, including all areas of the Nineveh Plain, even the northern ones. Which is agreed to be under the control of the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

Battles took place between those forces and forces Peshmerga For weeks, then it was agreed that the Kurdish forces would withdraw from the towns they had liberated from ISIS.

The security and administrative chaos prevailed in all the cities, towns and regions of the Nineveh Plain for nearly two years. The 30th Brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces, composed mainly of members of the Shabak nationality and loyal to the Badr Corps, used to rule that region by force of arms and form a kind of special state in the entire region of the Sahel.

This chaos led the former Iraqi prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi Because a bureaucratic order was issued on the first of July 2019 requiring the withdrawal of the Hashd factions from city centers, towns, and districts to the specialized camps, similar to the regular army brigades and their personnel, which was considered by several factions in the crowd as a blow to their influence, interests and dominance, including the Shiite Shabeki Brigade's 30th Brigade. Led by Waad al-Qaddo, whose members carried out a series of protests in his areas of control in the Nineveh Plain, such as burning tires, blocking roads and disrupting public life, which paralyzed public life in the region and cut supply lines between the city of Mosul and the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

On August 8, 2019, and contrary to what was expected at the time, and instead of implementing the prime minister's decision, the Popular Mobilization Authority intervened in mediation between the leaders of the 30th Brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces, the Mosul Governorate Council, the Iraqi army and the regular security forces in that region at the time, which reached a consensus. My appearance between the leadership of the 30th Brigade The popular crowd And the regular security forces, so that the two sides manage the security issue in the Nineveh Plains region in cooperation with each other, but in effect the entire region of the Nineveh Plain has been given to the 30th Brigade of the "Shiite" network mobilization linked to the Badr Corps, headed by Hadi al-Amiri, the closest Iraqi politician to Iran.

Since that date, the Nineveh Plain area has been considered an Iranian sphere of influence, through the full domination of the 30th Brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces, with powers and freedom of movement superior to that of the Iraqi army or security services.