Choosing Iraq's new president is closely linked to that of the prime minister, and veteran politician Nuri al-Maliki might make a comeback to the helm of the country.

This comes amid the threats by the most important pro-Iranian Shia militant group, Kata'ib Hezbollah, which speaks of "total war" after the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier arrived in the Middle East, a sign of another possible attack against Iran.

Faced with this situation of great tensions and uncertainty, the Chaldean Church and its patriarch, Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako, are calling for prayer and fasting to avert the danger of fresh violence, a portent of more conflict and devastation for the population.

This fear is real, especially given what is happening in other countries, like Syria, where the authorities have engaged in fierce fighting with Kurdish forces, something that could also have repercussions in Iraq.

There is also the controversial decision by the United States to move about 150 Islamic State (IS) prisoners from Hasakah, Syria, to a secure facility in Iraq, as part of an operation that could involve up to 7,000 "caliphate" fighters.

This move risks reopening old wounds in a country that has yet to overcome the tragedies and devastation of jihadi rule in the north, Mosul and the Nineveh Plain, between 2014 and 2017, where tensions with Islamic fundamentalists have never fully subsided.

Kata'ib Hezbollah's "total war"

The first level of attention and concern regards the regional scenario, especially the implications of the protests in Iran and the risk of US (and Israeli) intervention against the Islamic Republic's leaders, with inevitable repercussions for Baghdad.

Iraq has been at the centre of a power struggle between Washington and Tehran for years. Through military force and political influence, especially via proxy militias, they influence the life of the Arab country. To this must be added the return of Nouri al-Maliki, seen as close to but not completely aligned with the US.

The Iraqi militant group Kata'ib Hezbollah has intervened in this game of alliances and spheres of influence, saying it is preparing for "total war" to coincide with the arrival of the US aircraft carrier, which has put the US within "striking range" of Iran.

The new statement from Kata'ib Hezbollah is signed by al-Hamidawi, re-elected as the group's leader in 2022.

Known by the nom de guerre Ahmad Mohsen Faraj al-Hamidawi, the head of the pro-Iranian militia warned that any conflict with Iran "will not be easy". Threatening his adversaries, he said that in the event of a clash, they would "face severe consequences".

Addressing his militants, he urged them to be always "field-ready". "We address our call to our mujahideen brothers ... to prepare for a total war in support of the Islamic Republic of Iran," he added.

These fighting words come from one of the groups closest to Iran and the Pasdaran, similar in every way to its Lebanese equivalent, Hezbollah, who, like them, have access to a large stockpile of weapons.

Yesterday's statement is just the latest example of how Tehran-backed militias in Iraq continue to threaten Israel, the United States, and the region.

In recent days, such groups have deployed their forces along the Syrian border, claiming to be helping the central government in Baghdad protect the country from potential intruders.

The United States targeted Kata'ib Hezbollah previous leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a drone strike in 2020, when he was travelling in the same vehicle as Iranian Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, killing both.

For their part, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said that they were on high alert and ready for any scenario, as tensions escalated.

New president and al-Maliki's return

Meanwhile, two crucial events now dominate Iraq's political life. One is the election of the new president to replace Abdul Latif Rashid, who was involved in a bitter feud with the Chaldean primate after he decided to revoke a presidential decree recognising the latter as a head of the Church. The other event is the nomination of a new prime minister.

According to the constitution, the president should be chosen by 29 January, but just this morning, the Council of Representatives of Iraq (the country's de facto unicameral legislature) postponed the election.

The decision, explained parliamentary Speaker Haibat al-Halbousi, follows a request of delay by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the two main Kurdish parties.

The vote was postponed until further notice, although the next meeting will likely be scheduled for 1 February, to allow the two parties to agree on a name (under the constitution, the president is an ethnic Kurd).

Vice President Farhad Atroushi confirmed the suspension at this morning's parliamentary session, citing the failure to meet the legal quorum required for the vote.

The delay is expected to last only a few days, as requested by the KDP and PUK before today's meeting, to give them more time and flexibility amid precarious interests and alliances.

However, the decision to postpone the vote has raised concerns among those who fear a ripple effect since it would also delay the nomination of the next prime minister and cabinet, and this could negatively impact the country's political stability.

With Rashid's controversial term in office now over, the two candidates vying for succession are likely to by the KDP's Fuad Hussein and the PUK's Nizar Amedi.

The election of the president will be followed by the nomination of the person charged with forming the new government, one of the head of state's first formal tasks.

According to various analysts, veteran politician and former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is in pole position for getting the task, as recommended by the Shia-led Coordination Framework alliance (the majority bloc in the Assembly), a choice that is sure to spark tensions and divisions.

In fact, at stake is not only the formation of the next government but, also Iraq's position amid growing rivalry between the United States and Iran, fragile Sunni-Shia relations, and a Kurdish leadership that favours predictability over experimentation.

In a statement, the Coordination Framework stated that al-Maliki -- who was prime minister from late 2005 to 2014 -- was picked "based on his political and administrative experience and his role in managing the state."

He had resigned following the rise of the Islamic State, though he remained an influential political player in the Arab country's sectarian ethno-religious politics.

Various experts note that, while Washington and Tehran are pushing in opposite directions, and Iraqi factions are alternating between principle and pragmatism, the question is not whether al-Maliki can return, but whether Iraq can take in that return without reopening old wounds.

Chaldean Church fasting for peace

Against this backdrop of tensions and uncertainty over the future, the Chaldean Church issued a call to the faithful, urging them to fast and pray for three days on 26-28 January "for peace in the region".

Recently, the Chaldean primate himself, Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako, published an appeal on the patriarchate's website, underlining his "great concern" over the "alarming news" coming from various parts of the Middle East.

In a note sent to AsiaNews, the cardinal says that we are witnessing an "escalation of conflicts, militarisation, polarisation, and declining stability" in the region.

For this reason, he calls on the country's leaders and people, both Christians and Muslims, to adopt "concrete measures" to promote "peace and harmony" and spare the countries of the region "further calamities".

The prelate also urges the United Nations to "take responsibility and deal with the conflicts and achieve peace through dialogue, so as to preserve the sovereignty of countries and the rights of their citizens."

Furthermore, local governments must "carefully analyse the situation and assume direct responsibility for protecting their nation and guaranteeing freedom, dignity, and a decent standard of living for all citizens."

Finally, regarding Iraq specifically, "the time has come to implement reforms, moving from slogans to action, entrusting the state with a monopoly on weapons and decisively combating corruption. The criteria for building a state," he warns, "are the principles of citizenship, competence, and adherence to ethical policies."

As for religion, Cardinal Sako notes that it "is a personal matter, while public affairs should be based on competence and ability."

Any new government, in his view, must ensure equality among people, while respecting and embracing "religious and ethnic diversity," which is a resource.

Finally, the patriarch calls on the authorities "to sincerely commit to change the discourse in the media, mosques, and churches, and improve educational programmes in schools."